This Presidential election year has been all about change. The voters crave change, and the candidates are peddling it. Obama has made change the central theme of his candidacy. After having survived the primary battle in which the combatants all tried to demonstrate how deeply Conservative they were, McCain is touting his maverick reputation and asserting he will bring reform to Washington. And with Bush on his way out, new leadership offers the promise of change. All the yammering about change and the diversity represented by the candidates suggest the upcoming election will be unconventional, but there are signs the election won't be all that much different than the past two.
Exuding optimism before brought down to earth a tad, Obama was hoping to broaden the electoral battlefield beyond the closely contested states of the past two elections. Early on, there might have been reason to hope Obama could win states like North Carolina and Georgia. As the race has worn on, it has become increasingly apparent that the reliably Republican states will most likely give the nod to the Republican candidate again. Obama can plausibly win Virginia and Colorado, as these states have been trending Democratic in recent years, though an Obama win in these states are by no means certain or even likely. Obama will almost certainly get Iowa's electoral votes after a narrow victory for Bush four years ago. Swing states like New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire are up for grabs again this time. The Midwest is again a battleground as it has been during this decade. Barring a collapse by either campaign, I wouldn't bet on any substantial realignment of the electoral map this year.
Though there was hope McCain and Obama would put forth positive messages, it hasn't really turned out that way. Obama has been skewered for his lack of experience, while Obama has tried to tie McCain to the now unpopular sitting President. There have been the usual attacks by Republicans that Obama is too liberal, and that all Americans will face higher taxes with Obama as President even though Obama has vowed not to raise taxes on families making less than $250,000 a year. Democrats ferociously went after McCain's surprising and little known VP pick hoping to tarnish her reputation before she acquired one, though the attacks only made the Democrats look petty and foolish. Negative campaigning has been prominently featured since the nominations were secured, which demonstrates that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Voters may have hoped that the well-liked candidates this year would have fostered a thoughtful discussion of the many challenges that will greet the next President, but instead gutter politics have reigned supreme.
With the many twists and turns observed so far, this election year has been fascinating to watch. Though the parties picked unconventional and surprising candidates, recent trends suggest the upcoming election won't be that unconventional after all.
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