It really has been a pretty good summer for John McCain. The good times for McCain started when war broke out between Russia and Georgia. The advent of war between a US ally and Russia briefly diverted the attention of the American public away from the creaky economy. And when there is foreign matters making news, it is natural for the public to yearn for an experienced hand over a political neophyte. As world events pivoted in McCain's direction, Obama went on vacation in Hawaii and lost the initiative. Obama received a short-lived bounce from the Democratic convention which was immediately erased by the Republican convention. What really shook up the race was McCain's surprise selection of Sarah Palin for VP. It sparked immediate interest in the McCain campaign from the media while cementing the support of the Republican base. It also provided McCain the opportunity to argue however implausibly that he will bring reform to Washington. In recent days, McCain has nudged ahead of Obama in a majority of national polls elevating the spirits of Republicans while instilling dread among Democrats. It is pretty clear McCain has had a rather solid eight weeks that have catapulted him into a near even race with Obama. Is the rise in the polls by McCain permanent, or has he peaked too soon?
McCain's poll numbers rose after his selection of Palin for VP and her generally well-received speech at the convention. Picking Palin resulted in a surge of publicity for the McCain campaign. The public also was understandably curious about McCain's little known VP candidate. Yet, there is good reason to believe McCain's surge in the polls since his convention is transient. First of all, most voters historically don't base their vote on the VP candidate regardless how fresh or exciting the VP candidate might be. Also, Palin's appeal may wane as people learn she isn't a moderate. Swing voters who will decide this election aren't rabid ideologues, and they might balk at supporting a VP candidate whose views aren't exactly mainstream.
Real bad news emanating from Wall Street has changed the political landscape, which could prove troubling for McCain. The sudden demise of Lehman, absorption of Merrill Lynch by Bank America, and the government rescue of AIG are forcing the media and voters to again focus on the struggling US economy. This is a bad development for McCain. Though McCain has expressed outrage at the reckless behavior on Wall Street, it is hard to ignore he has been a staunch proponent of deregulation which has played a role in the current financial crisis. Moreover, McCain has never been all that comfortable talking about the economy, and with recent developments McCain will presumably have to talk about it more than he would probably like. McCain might plausibly win an election in which foreign policy eclipses the economy as the signature issue, but he is at a distinct disadvantage if when voters go to the polls, they are primarily concerned with domestic matters.
The debates will probably decide this election. Though McCain is probably underestimated regarding his debating skills, he could be in trouble facing Obama. Compared to the youthful Obama, McCain is going to look old. And while foreign policy will be discussed in detail, the economy and other domestic concerns will be addressed. On the domestic issues, Obama starts well-positioned before ever opening his mouth given he's not a Republican. Also, the McCain candidacy has been much more about his impressive biography than the existence of an agenda that addresses the many challenges the next President will face. McCain may be able to skate through the debates and convince voters he'll bring reform to Washington, however I think it is more likely he'll be exposed as a fraud, a man expressing an interest to change things but with little intention of doing so.
The summer has revitalized the McCain campaign. Republicans for the first time really believe they can win the Presidential election despite the toxic political environment they are facing. McCain may indeed pull this out, but the biggest challenges are still to come. Republicans and McCain may learn the grim lesson that a sudden rush of excitement which elevates a campaign can rather suddenly dissipate when a candidate relies too heavily on his impressive biography, and his calls for reform are revealed to be nothing more than empty campaign slogans not supported by his very own agenda.
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