Infinite Wisdom

We Are All Socialists Now

After invoking a series of pathetic and ineffective attacks on Obama, McCain has stepped up his efforts to paint Obama as a socialist.   McCain has been slamming Obama relentlessly over Obama's comment that he has plans to "spread the wealth around".   One could argue that Obama's plan to raise taxes on the affluent to pay for tax benefits for the middle class(and poor) is a sensible way of addressing the widening wealth gap that has exploded in recent years.   Since Americans haven't traditionally favored redistributing wealth to those less endowed, McCain's assertion that this is tantamount to socialism might have held some promise for the GOP in a normal year.   But in the current environment, this attack probably won't work any more effectively than McCain's attempt to tie Obama to the actions of the leader of a  radical anti-war organization of the 1960's. 

Since the days of Ronald Reagan, Conservative politicians have portrayed their opponents as proponents of socialism.  Any effort to make the tax code more progressive has been opposed by Conservatives who don't seem the least bit concerned by the exploding wealth gap.  Conservatives have steadfastly clung to a trickle-down theory even as evidence suggests that not enough wealth is trickling down to foster a robust economy which features gains by a wide swath of the population.  Though economic gains have largely remained with the wealthiest Americans and have barely trickled down at all, this hasn't forced Conservatives to change their agenda one whit.  This would suggest Conservatives don't care whether economic prosperity is widespread.

To their credit, Obama and the Democrats have been advocating a shift back to a more progressive tax system.  This has prompted McCain to argue Obama is a socialist.  In a normal year, this attack might have had some potency.  But this isn't an ordinary year.  To avert a financial meltdown, the government has been aggressively assisting the financial industry.  If that doesn't represent socialism, I don't know what does.  And I suspect the American people won't be moved much by McCain's insistence Obama is a socialist since they are observing the Bush led government embracing socialism as it tries to stabilize a rickety financial sector.  Though Americans might be famous for being apolitical, I think they are astute enough to conclude that if socialism must be employed to rescue a reckless financial industry, then tinkering with the tax code to promote a bit more fairness for the little guy isn't the end of the world.  The hypocrisy of McCain and most of the GOP is jarring.  A government rescue of the financial industry is acceptable, but spreading the wealth to those less fortunate isn't.  While McCain will try and tiptoe around this blatant hypocrisy, I doubt too many Americans will find McCain's insistence Obama is a socialist terribly persuasive.

Though McCain will undoubtedly keep trying to pin the socialist label on Obama, it isn't likely to sway enough voters to appreciably alter the race.  This is because McCain can't escape the inconvenient reality that the government's recent massive intervention in propping up the financial industry undermines the notion that socialism needs to be spurned in all situations.   Much to McCain's dismay, we are all socialists now. 

Chaos and Flaws Undermine the McCain Effort

In just about three weeks, Americans will go to the polls to elect a successor to George W. Bush.  Though of course anything can happen, it now appears likely Barack Obama will be the next President.  Four weeks ago, things looked very different.  McCain received a bounce coming out of his convention that vaulted him into the lead.   Democrats started fretting, while Republicans for the first time started to believe McCain might actually win.  But just before McCain could get comfortable in the lead, the tide turned.  McCain's fall wasn't precipitated by his own actions, though he did seem out of touch when he asserted the fundamentals of the economy were strong just as the banking crisis erupted.  As McCain watched helplessly, the crisis on Wall Street deepened and drowned out much of McCain's rhetoric.  McCain was caught flatfooted by the crisis, and his erratic reaction hardly reassured a worried nation.  In contrast, Obama reacted coolly to the crisis and seemed more presidential.  The McCain campaign has been at a disadvantage because of the toxic political environment, so no one will be surprised if McCain loses.  Though McCain can't be faulted for the unfavorable political environment, it hasn't helped that the campaign has been devoid of an overarching theme, and there hasn't been a consistent message.

The biggest problem for McCain is he hasn't been able to distance himself enough from Bush.   Recent polls show 90% of Americans feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.  This reveals deep dissatisfaction among the electorate, yet McCain's campaign hasn't effectively addressed the widespread anger and angst of voters.  With the populace disgusted with Bush and Congress, voters are looking for change.  What they aren't looking for is a continuation of Bush's policies, and consequently McCain's orthodox Conservative agenda is not being warmly received by the electorate.

The McCain campaign has been clumsy and painfully slow to adapt.  McCain's reaction to the financial meltdown on Wall Street made him look clueless and out of touch.  When he announced he was suspending his campaign so he could assist in enacting a financial industry bailout plan in Congress, the gambit backfired.  McCain even went so far as to suggest the first debate with Obama ought to be postponed, if a deal for the bailout wasn't reached in Congress.  And then in an abrupt reversal, McCain did debate though no deal was struck.  Considering McCain's impetuous actions, it is hard to accept McCain's assertion he'd represent a "steady hand at the tiller".  McCain's reaction to the financial industry meltdown hardly was reassuring to the public, which undermined the case that he'd be a safer choice than Obama.  Following the financial industry meltdown, McCain didn't immediately change his campaign strategy.  The McCain campaign unwisely kept trying to associate Obama with Mr. Bill Ayers, once a leader of the radical Weather Undergound, even though the voters weren't paying attention to such matters once the stock market started dropping precipitously in reaction to the crisis in the financial sector.  McCain could have trumped Obama by quickly announcing a comprehensive plan to deal with the impending recession which would have demonstrated decisive leadership that might have vaulted McCain back into contention, but he failed to seize the moment.  McCain's campaign was slow to adapt to the woes on Wall Street which further buttressed the argument made by McCain's critics that he is out of touch.

Conspicuously absent from the McCain campaign has been a consistent message.  At times, it hasn't seemed even McCain could clearly articulate why he is running.   The inconsistency in the McCain rhetoric has been jarring.  He initially tried to emphasize his experience, which was clearly not working.  And then at the convention, he was suddenly the maverick again promising reform.  And as the financial crisis deepened, McCain started singing a more populist tune.  Even as he has constantly tweaked and retooled his message, McCain still at this late date has failed to establish an easily identifiable theme that would explain the rationale for his candidacy.  McCain has also failed to explain to an angst-ridden populace how a McCain Presidency would be different from the Bush years, which would seem to be an almost fatal flaw.

McCain was always the underdog in this race, as he has had to battle against a toxic political environment and an opponent who has gifted oratorical skills.  In such an environment, even a figure as well-liked as McCain could only win by running an exemplary campaign.  So far, McCain has run a chaotic campaign that has demonstrated his impetuousness far more than an ability to lead.   Though the McCain campaign has shown a willingness to alter its message, it hasn't gracefully transitioned when situations dictated a switch in strategy.  And at this late date, it is amazing the McCain campaign still appears to lack an unambiguous overarching theme.  And in an environment that required nearly flawless execution, the McCain campaign hasn't come close. 

The Tide Turns Against McCain

The financial woes on Wall Street have reshaped the Presidential race.  The troubles in the financial sector have captured the attention of the electorate, and have tilted the election in Obama's favor.  For obvious reasons, McCain would have preferred to make this a personality contest where he'd pit his impressive life story and maverick reputation against Obama, the political neophyte.   Unfortunately for McCain, real world events have scuttled efforts to focus the debate on foreign policy matters.  Even if one were to accept the dubious assertion that the surge has led to a more stable Iraq, the sad fact for McCain is the Iraq issue has faded in importance, and so his insistence that he was right about the surge mostly falls on deaf ears.  McCain hasn't been able to adapt to a rapidly changing political situation.  Equally problematic for McCain is though he has tried hard to distance himself from Bush, his plans for the country don't sound all that much like change.  Thus, Obama and Biden are effective in making the assertion that what McCain is proposing sounds very much like a third Bush term.   McCain has had no effective counter to this line of attack.  For this reason, support for McCain has been eroding steadily during the past three weeks.  What just three weeks ago looked like a very competitive race, now could easily wind up being an Obama landslide where the Illinois Senator garners at least 300 electoral votes.  Though McCain's unconventional moves have been entertaining to watch, his campaign has suffered from a lack of a consistent compelling message.  McCain may know why he is running, but that doesn't mean voters do.  Ultimately, McCain is sinking in the polls because voters are craving a change in direction, and the McCain agenda is way too timid to make his assertion he is coming to Washington to implement change convincing.

Though it is a mere month from election night, McCain's campaign doesn't have an identifiable overall theme.  By picking Palin, McCain was trying to buttress the case that a McCain Presidency will bring changes to Washington.   Yet, McCain isn't all that convincing as a great reformer especially since he is pitted against Obama, who can more credibly argue he'll be an agent for change as a relative newcomer to the national political stage.  Faced with the impossible task of outflanking Obama on the ability to foster change, McCain has tried desperately to portray Obama as too inexperienced to be entrusted with the Presidency.  McCain has also tried with limited success to suggest Obama's plans for the country won't bring positive change.  While all politicians have to go after their opponents, a successful campaign usually needs to give voters a compelling reason to vote for it.  I would argue the McCain campaign has never articulated clearly why voters ought to support McCain.   And as far as being a change agent, so far McCain has only succeeded in convincing voters his last name isn't Bush.

As the campaign has dragged on, McCain has increasingly seemed out of touch.  As Iraq has faded in importance and the economy drifts into recession,  McCain has mistakenly emphasized foreign policy matters.  While Conservatives may still warmly receive his insistence victory must be achieved in Iraq, this isn't winning McCain much traction with independents.   The issue of the economy has been thrust front and center into the campaign with the sudden meltdown on Wall Street, and it seems McCain isn't all that comfortable talking about domestic policy.   McCain can get passionate when he talks about wasteful earmarks, but voters are probably savvy enough to realize the elimination of all earmarks will play little or no role in avoiding a major recession.  In the most recent debate, McCain suggested that there be a freeze in government spending.   Though reducing wasteful government spending may be a laudable goal, McCain's emphasis here is out of step with the government's sudden intervention into the financial industry.  With the economy teetering and voters justifiably worried whether their jobs are safe, I doubt McCain is winning much support by arguing he'll cut government spending .  The McCain campaign might have won in 2004 when foreign policy issues eclipsed domestic matters, but he is poorly positioned to win in the vastly different political climate of 2008.

If McCain does wind up losing, it will be interesting to see how the GOP reacts.  Will it blame the loss on McCain?  I would argue the GOP is on the verge of losing the Presidency, because it has stubbornly refused to adapt as the political winds have changed.  Though Republicans are loath to admit it, it does seem like the energy of the Reagan revolution has finally run out of steam.  Voters are no longer buying into the wisdom of excessive deregulation.  And the argument by Republicans that higher taxes will spur a loss of jobs is utterly unconvincing as the economy hemorrhages jobs amid an environment of low taxes.  In such an environment, the old Republican tactic of accusing Democrats of being too liberal has lost its potency.   When compared against the mismanagement of the Bush years, liberal Democrats don't look so scary.

The McCain campaign still is within striking distance, but a McCain victory looks increasingly unlikely as the campaign heads into its last month.   Voters have given McCain a chance to win their vote, but they just aren't attracted to his message.  Republican tactics that worked in 2002 and 2004 aren't having the desired effect this year.  With the election a mere month away, the prospects for a McCain victory don't look good.